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Aberdeen, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Aberdeen SD
National Weather Service Forecast for: Aberdeen SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Aberdeen, SD
Updated: 6:34 pm CDT Jul 9, 2025
 
Tonight

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Some of the storms could be severe.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South southeast wind 8 to 17 mph becoming west northwest after midnight.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Severe
T-Storms

Thursday

Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 92. South southeast wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Hot

Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 10pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind 6 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
T-storms
Likely then
Showers
Likely
Friday

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly sunny, with a high near 81. North wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
T-storms

Friday
Night
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. North northwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Partly Cloudy

Saturday

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 84. West northwest wind 6 to 10 mph.
Sunny

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Southwest wind around 8 mph becoming south southeast in the evening.
Partly Cloudy

Sunday

Sunday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 93. South southwest wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Hot

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 63. South wind 7 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Mostly Clear

Lo 65 °F Hi 92 °F Lo 65 °F Hi 81 °F Lo 56 °F Hi 84 °F Lo 60 °F Hi 93 °F Lo 63 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Heat Advisory
 

Tonight
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South southeast wind 8 to 17 mph becoming west northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 92. South southeast wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Thursday Night
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind 6 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. North wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. North northwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Saturday
 
Sunny, with a high near 84. West northwest wind 6 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Southwest wind around 8 mph becoming south southeast in the evening.
Sunday
 
Sunny and hot, with a high near 93. South southwest wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. South wind 7 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday
 
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 91.
Monday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday Night
 
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday
 
A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Aberdeen SD.

Weather Forecast Discussion
818
FXUS63 KABR 092046
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
346 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced/Slight risk (level 3/2 of 5) for severe storms across
  the region into the evening hours. Hail up to 2 inches in
  diameter possible over central/north central SD late this
  afternoon, with gusts up to 75 mph into this evening.

- Heat and humidity today and Thursday (especially over central
  South Dakota), with highs in the 90s and heat indices
  approaching 100 degrees.

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms
  Thursday/Thursday night. Main risks are hail up to around
  quarter size and wind gusts of 60 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Convection is beginning to fire along the surface boundary across
northwest SD into southwest ND. Swath of very unstable air with
MLCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/KG lies from central ND, southeast
into the James River valley. Bulk shear values are around 30 knots
over western SD. So, although the current storms are not developing
over the most unstable air, anything that moves closer to central SD
will be approaching very buoyant air. Parameters continue to support
potential for large hail up to 2 inches in diameter across central
SD, plus a strong wind threat up to around 75mph also over central
SD eastward into the James River valley. Severe watch 498 is already
in effect across central SD into the evening hours.

Also for this afternoon/evening, went ahead and issued a Heat
Advisory as several locations were in that 100-108 heat index range,
a bit higher and more expansive than what the forecast looked like
this morning. Dewpoints are a bit higher than forecast in some
areas, leading to the higher heat indices. Also, actual air
temperatures are flirting with 100 over central SD.

More potential for precipitation and perhaps strong/severe storms
arrives Thursday/Thursday night. Although, the timing of the mid-
level wave and associated best lift/ascent may be later in the
evening, thus leaving more widespread coverage to hold off until the
overnight hours.

Cold front moves through the region on Friday, bringing in cooler
air as 850mb temps drop into the low to mid teens C. High
temperatures drop back into the upper 70s to low 80s on Friday,
along with lowering dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions across the region through much of the afternoon.
Will be watching potential for TSRA/+TSRA across central SD
(KPIR/KMBG) late afternoon into early evening, then spreading
eastward towards KABR/KATY later in the evening/nighttime. Still
some questions in regards to areal coverage and placement of said
storms, so will handle with PROB30 for the time being until radar
activity lights up and we can get an idea of where storms will
track. Heavier downpours have the potential for MVFR/IFR VSBY.
Severe storms are possible, with large hail (GR) and squall (SQ)
conditions in strong surface wind gusts from some westerly
component perhaps in excess of 60 knots.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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