Aberdeen, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Aberdeen SD
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Aberdeen SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Aberdeen, SD |
Updated: 11:45 am CDT Jul 27, 2025 |
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This Afternoon
 Hot
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Tonight
 Partly Cloudy
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Monday
 Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers
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Monday Night
 Severe T-Storms
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Tuesday
 Severe T-Storms then Slight Chance Showers
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Tuesday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms then Chance Showers
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Wednesday
 Mostly Sunny
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Wednesday Night
 Partly Cloudy
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Thursday
 Mostly Sunny
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Hi 93 °F |
Lo 66 °F |
Hi 88 °F |
Lo 63 °F |
Hi 80 °F |
Lo 59 °F |
Hi 78 °F |
Lo 55 °F |
Hi 78 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Heat Advisory
This Afternoon
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Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 103. South southwest wind 10 to 13 mph. |
Tonight
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. North wind around 7 mph. |
Monday
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A slight chance of showers after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East northeast wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%. |
Monday Night
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Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 1am and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Northeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. |
Tuesday
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a slight chance of showers between 7am and 1pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Tuesday Night
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then a chance of showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Wednesday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. East northeast wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. East wind 6 to 10 mph. |
Thursday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Southeast wind 6 to 10 mph. |
Thursday Night
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. |
Friday
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A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Friday Night
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A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Saturday
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Aberdeen SD.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
173
FXUS63 KABR 271347 AAB
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
847 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions to continue into Monday. Heat index
values of 100 to 105 degrees are expected across central and
northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota this
afternoon and evening through 8 PM CDT.
- Lofted smoke that has drifted over this area, from wildfires
over the western states, should persist through at least
Monday.
- There is a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers and storms over
eastern SD late this afternoon into tonight. There is a Slight
Risk, or level 2 out of 5, of severe storms capable of producing
strong winds of 70 mph and hail up to around 2 inches in
diameter east of a line from Wheaton, MN to Andover, SD to
Carpenter, SD.
- There is a 50-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday
evening. There is a Slight risk, level 2 out of 5, for severe
storms capable of producing strong winds of 70 mph and hail up
to around 2 inches in diameter across most of central and
northeastern SD into west central MN.
- Cooler air is expected Tuesday through at least Saturday, with
highs mainly in the mid 70s to low 80s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
No changes planned to the today period forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
As of 2AM CDT we still have some showers and subsevere
thunderstorms over north central and northeastern SD. These are
expected to continue north and out of our area in the next few
hours. Temperatures across the forecast area are in the low 70s
with winds around 10-15 mph generally out of the south.
We continue our active pattern today with about a 30-40% chance of
storms this evening. SPC has highlighted an area mainly east of the
James River in a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for isolated
severe storms. There will be plenty of MLCAPE for storms to use with
values ranging from 3000 to 4000 J/kg. Lapse rates are between 7.5
and 8 C/km during the afternoon and evening hours. Any storms that
form will have the potential for hail 2 inches in diameter and wind
gusts of 70 mph. A tornado or two is not out of the question. There
is also a 50-70% chance for storms and a Slight risk (level 2 out of
5) for isolated severe storms on Monday. This covers nearly the
entire forecast area, leaving just north central SD in a marginal
risk (level 1 out of 5). These storms look to start in western SD in
the late afternoon and move east into the evening and overnight
hours. Lapse rates of around 8 C/km again and MLCAPE values of 1500-
3000 J/kg. Primary threats will be hail 2 inches in diameter and
wind gusts of 70 mph. NAEFS is also showing PWAT values in the 90th
percentile (1.5 inches) and WPC is highlighting a marginal risk over
most of the area and a slight risk over east central SD for
excessive rainfall across our entire forecast area adding heavy rain
to our list of threats from any storms that become severe. A tornado
or two will again be possible as well. Into the work week, we have
50% or less chances of showers and storms every day as we continue
our active pattern.
A Heat Advisory will be in effect today from 1 PM CDT through 8 PM
CDT. Just kept what previous shift had. Peak heat index values will
range from 95 to 105 F. HRRR Smoke is showing two rounds of more
concentrated elevated smoke, one Sunday and one Monday. No smoke is
expected to reach the surface at this time. High temperatures
through the work week are expected to be about 5-10 degrees below
normal. With the incoming cooler air mass, near surface level smoke
may work its way into the area, however, not certain on timing or
concentration levels.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions for all terminals. Storm chances are primarily
focused in the area of the KATY terminal this afternoon.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ006>008-010-011-017>023-
033>037-045-048-051.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...07
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